Just reviewed fresh model data on the Tuesday system. Models are really settling on a consensus now, taking the system from the Gulf states then through the Carolinas. Forecast snow amounts still vary a bit among the models, with the GFS showing about 5-6” for Richmond, the NAM showing 7-10” (not likely to happen, the NAM usually goes a bit overboard with precip), European showing 10-12” (the European model has performed rather poorly this winter, so again, not a likely scenario), and the Canadian model at about 5”. I believe the most realistic consensus is with the GFS and Canadian models, given how fast this system will be moving. The Weather Prediction Service has Richmond at about a 40% chance of at least 4” of snow:
I’m going to go a bit conservative with my numbers, given the quick pace with which this system will be moving. Also, another caveat: it’s very difficult to predict where the heaviest snow bands will set up. Often times, these bands of heavy snow will kind of “pop up” and then dissipate within 10 or 15 minutes, so these numbers are a rough estimate, a general idea.
Eastern Chesterfield (closer to 95)/City of Richmond/Henrico/Hanover: 4-6”
Powhatan/Goochland/western Chesterfield (Midlothian, Winterpock, etc.): 3-5”
Petersburg/Colonial Heights: 2-4” possibly some sleet mixing in
Worth mentioning: the NAM model has been trying to work in some warmer air, which would lead to sleet/freezing rain mixing in for a while before we switch back over to snow towards the end of this event. I’m not entirely sold yet on this scenario, no other model shows warmer air trying to sneak in. But we still have another day’s worth of model runs to look at.
No comments:
Post a Comment