Looked at fresh model data just now, and it shows the system not moving as quickly as shown in previous model runs. This would tack on a few more hours of snowfall (tapering off after 10am rather than 7am originally), and with a slight shift north again in the storm track, I am upping my snow forecast for metro Richmond and surrounding counties to about 4-6", but not going quite as high as others, taking into account some short range models tend to have a wet bias, which leads to going overboard with snow totals for winter storms.
Southeast Virginia (Emporia over to Norfolk/Hampton Roads) will hit the jackpot with just shy of a foot possible there. As you go northwest of Richmond, if you draw a line from Tappahannock to Ruther Glen to Louisa, areas along that line and northward should stay on the light side, a dusting to 2" at the most.
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