I just read the 5pm advisory from the Hurricane Center, in combination with checking the latest forecast model data. Erika will likely weaken, possibly to the point of degenerating into just a glob of showers and thunderstorms, as she passes over a lot of land (Dominican Republic, Haiti, etc.) At this point it will be difficult for the storm to reach hurricane strength. In fact, even though Erika is still expected to make landfall (early next week) somewhere in Florida, it will probably only be a weak tropical storm by then, and the latest update from the NHC states that they may not even have to issue any tropical storm watches or warnings.
A caveat, however. *IF* Erika manages to stay over water, either by circumventing the islands or eventually heading into the Gulf before making landfall, that would change the equation dramatically as the storm would not be cut off from its fuel source. But, this is a big IF at this point, and the first scenario seems much more likely.
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