As of this morning, Erika is barely holding on as she moves over the Dominican Republic; winds have decreased to 40 mph and her structure is being severely disrupted by the higher terrain there. The storm must also survive Cuba. *IF* Erika can do that, she’ll move into the Gulf of Mexico, which presently is a much friendlier environment. The latest advisory from the hurricane center calls for weakening to a tropical depression over the next 24-48 hours, then strengthening back into a minimal tropical storm in the Gulf prior to landfall near Tallahassee, if there is anything left of Erika after Cuba.
If Erika survives, the latest track from the hurricane center takes her into the Gulf of Mexico then northward, making landfall near Tallahassee, Florida as a very weak tropical storm. It seems very unlikely that the NHC would even issue any watches or warnings.
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