Threat from Joaquin diminishing but flooding rains still on the way

Over the course of the day, models have continued to shift the track of Joaquin further and further east, away from the east coast. I believe the reason for this is because stronger hurricanes tend to be able to resist upper air features that would otherwise exert influence over the system. And that’s the case with Joaquin. It intensified rapidly beginning last night and has continued to do so today. So, Joaquin will indeed escape the clutches of that trough I mentioned in my last post, and move due north parallel to the coast for a time, then turn out to sea. Joaquin’s main impact then for the Mid Atlantic will be very rough surf and rip tides along the eastern seaboard, as well as rain and moderate wind from the outer edges of the storm.

Otherwise, our main issue will be moderate to heavy rain beginning tomorrow evening and continuing through the weekend. We are still looking at upwards of 5-8” and locally more.