Beginning with last night’s late evening GFS model update (and continuing now with the early morning update), Joaquin is now being shown as staying well offshore and heading almost due north towards New England, which is a pretty dramatic departure from what the GFS has been showing for the last week or so. Why the change? In the image below, we have that trough in the jet stream (outlined by the black line) I had mentioned. That trough was supposed to “capture” Joaquin and draw it northwestward (motion indicated by the blue arrow; Joaquin is circled in red) towards the coast.
In the last two GFS runs, Joaquin manages to escape the grip of that trough and instead of getting drawn in/scooped up and pushed towards the coast, Joaquin goes around the trough and heads north, then eventually northeast out to sea.
Is this idea correct? I’m not so sure. It doesn’t really make a lot of sense to me as to why Joaquin would be able to evade such a strong looking trough. Plus, I have seen many times in the past where a model that was consistently showing one idea, suddenly reverses course for one or two runs and then ends up going back towards its original idea. So, I will need to see the next few updates from the GFS (this afternoon and evening) before I can say for sure if this change is for real.
Bottom line: ridiculous amounts of rain are still coming, regardless of whether Joaquin comes our way or not.
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