I’m becoming increasingly concerned about a major winter system for Friday into Saturday, that could signifcantly cripple travel around the state. The European model, which has been the most bullish on seeing a hefty snowfall, has been incredibly consistent, showing the same scenario for the last 6 or 7 updates. Furthermore, some of the other models that had previously disagreed are now moving towards the European model idea.
*IF* the Euro model is correct then we could be looking at snow totals of historic preportions, with January 1996 coming to mind as a comparison. Taken verbatim, the European dumps a good foot of snow even in metro Richmond, with 2 feet as you go further west. The GFS doesn’t go quite that high, with about 5-6” in Richmond and the 1’+ of snow primarily over northern and western portions of the state. So exact amounts are still somewhat of a question mark due to slight differences remaining with the forecasted storm track. I do believe that a portion of our area will see some mixing (snow/sleet, maybe a period of rain), most likely just east of Richmond, before going to all snow on the tail end of the storm as it moves out Saturday evening. I’ll have more updates as final details get worked out.
I am in the process of putting together a map graphic to summarize what I see happening. I should have that uploaded in the next few hours.
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