Once today’s light snow system moves out of here this afternoon/evening, we’re looking mostly dry and seasonably cold for much of this upcoming week, with overnight lows in the mid teens/low 20s and highs in the mid to upper 30s.
In addition to today’s system, I’ve also been keeping a close eye on the next one, due to arrive next Saturday/Sunday. This one has the potential to bring us our first decent snow of the winter. All of the models are in general agreement about bringing wintry precip to at least part of the state, but they differ in the details. The GFS has this system staying further north, coming through Tennessee, Kentucky, into West Virginia before transferring energy to a new low pressure center off the coast of North Carolina. This scenario brings plenty of precipitation to the state, but because the storm track is so far north, it keeps us a lot closer to surface temperatures that would be marginal, at best (as the low moves up the coast, warm air on the south and east side of it gets pulled into eastern and even parts of central Virginia, changing the snow to rain).
The European model, on the other hand, keeps the low to our south, taking a track through northern Georgia and southern South Carolina before turning towards coastal North Carolina. This track keeps us within the precipitation shield but also keeps us on the colder side of the low, and thus, precip stays mostly snow for us.
That’s where things stand at the moment. I feel most confident in saying that we will likely see some wintry precip at the end of the week into next weekend, but the jury is still out on exactly what type and how much. Stay tuned!
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